Proposition 19, The Postmortem

[Jay Ryan]

This postmortem could have been written a while ago. As they say, the results were baked in from the start.

That being said...

Here is the story of a proposition gone wrong. Let's start with the basics, in California if you want to change the way your auto fees are used, you can bring it to a proposition, and if it sounds good, and you aren't butting heads with a big business interest, you might get your proposition passed.

However, if you want to change the laws that have been in place for a few generations, you need to be prepared to invest the money to explain your proposition in the media, and in California that means $2 million a week.

Living in California, and watching a good deal of TV here in the state, I can tell you, there was nothing on TV about proposition 19. And I mean nothing.

There were no billboard ads. No lawn signs. Nothing! It felt like proposition 8 (the anti-gay marriage proposition of 2008) all over again. Except this time, it was the backers of proposition 19 that needed to go on the offense, and they never did.

In addition this proposition was put on the ballot during a mid term election. Sure, this was a wave year in California, a Democratic Wave that ran exactly counter to every other state. In California the Democrats won every major seat, from Governor to Insurance Commissioner, and everything in between. Even all the other "Liberal" propositions passed. So, why not Proposition 19?

I've seen it blamed primarily on seniors, but is that the real story? Historically mid term elections draw seniors at a higher percentage. This is a known fact, one that seems to have been missed by the backers of proposition 19. Essentially, it would be an up hill battle from the start.

There was no Obama at the top of the ticket. Jerry Brown the Democrat won the Governors race, but he didn't run as a proponent of proposition 19. It just wasn't part of his platform. So the proposition wasn't going to ride his coat tails to a victory.

Beyond all the 'could'a-should'a-would'a' second guessing, the real story behind the lose was a common story in all elections. If you don't consolidate your base, you will lose.

The proposition 19 base should consist of everyone that has ever smoked marijuana. That's it, that's the base.

Once you have consolidated your base, you have to go after the undecided. People outside your base who hold strong feelings against marijuana will not be swayed by any amount of advertising, or debating, it's those that are undecided that decide close elections.

Proposition 19 never consolidated their base. Period! It failed at the first step.

As recently as last week I had a debate with another marijuana smoker about the pros and cons of proposition 19. The other smoker was against it. And she was not alone. As a matter of fact, with the recent change in current law in California, it's no longer an actual crime to posses an ounce or less. Though buying it or selling it is still illegal

The growers in the north were almost unanimously against the proposition. It is common knowledge that most if not all of the marijuana dispensaries state wide were against it. Sure, they may have put up a few signs in their windows supporting it, but the support was weak at best.

The reason for the lose of base votes is fairly straight forward. It's all about the dollar. The proposition was meant to appeal to the single user, single grower. Sure, there were provisions to allow large scale grows, but we have large scale grows in California right now. Instead of embracing them, the proposition seemed to be setting us up for all knew large scale grows, grows that would compete directly with the existing grows.

Frankly, it seemed that the proposition was going to drive a lot of the growers out of business, and this wouldn't be the first time the California grower was burnt by a proposition.

In many people's eyes, the medical marijuana laws have taken a bite out of the growers profits, making the marijuana market very competitive. To the user, this has been a boom. Prices have remained stable, and quality has gone through the roof as growers have been forced to compete for every dollar.

So, this, the day after the 2010 mid term elections, we can write the eulogy for another good idea gone wrong. Will anyone want to invest in another proposition, say in 2 years during a presidential election? If they do, will someone write a proposition that is more inclusive to the grower, and the growers needs? Will the proposition draw the base together instead of dividing it?

I fear that it will be many election cycles before we have another shot at legalization. Hopefully when that shot comes, the results will be different.

Peace,

J

[Syn]

Nice words Jay,,

That is beautifully put,,

[Jay Ryan]

Thanks Syn, I don't claim to know everything, but I know politics, and they kinda blew it.

[Syn]

Hey Jay ,,,

I have to say we we watch closely on this side of the pond,,

What ever happens there has an impact over here,,

But from word go we thought you would be fighting a loosing battle,,

Not for the most obvious reasons either !

As you say,,

There is already a thriving industry in medical marijuana ,,

Dispenceries patients and suppliers ,,

A lot of medical growers move there over spill to the dispenceries,,

I know one medical grower that can grow 120 plants at any one time !

I still don't know what condition he's trying to treat,,,,

He is always kinda vague on that,,,,,,,,,,

Must be bad though,,

But I do know he shifts most of that on to the dispenceries,,

N he wasn't to pleased at the prospect of the compettion,,

In simple terms if proposition 19 went through,

The dispenceries would be hit hard as to anyone moving there overspill,

So the community stands to lose a hell of a lot of money !

Truely you have just seen the medical marijuana community close ranks,,

All for the sake of the dollar

That's why no one was shouting about it ,,

[Jay Ryan]

Syn, great point!

Really, taken to the logical end, I think that grows would go from relatively small grows in and out, to indoor warehouse grows in northern california, and outdoor multi acreage grows in the south.

The product would be prerolled, packaged by RJ Reynolds, sold as Menthol, Regular, and Unfiltered. They'd slap a red label, or a green label on it, and the magic would disappear.

Monsanto would take over all seed production. Strains would be patented, seeds would only grow one plant, one season, basically all femanized autos. No more ten year old mothers still providing clones

Or it could have gone really well...

Either way, the medical in California lets you grow at a minimum of 6 in bloom, 6 in veg at a time per patient. So, the more people you get as patients, the more you can grow. If you join one of the collectives you can use their patient rolls and keep it under 100 and you won't go to jail.

I personally want 6 trees growing in my backyard.